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This is actually a question I've been asked on a couple of
occasions, usually after the cable networks begin their annual
holiday Trading Places bender. Because the marriage
of modern finance and comedy is (thankfully, as far as most
people are concerned) rare, Trading Places is pretty
near and dear to my heart. The movie's climax hinges
on a plot by elderly financial scoundrels the Duke Brothers
to speculate on frozen concentrated orange juice futures using
a stolen U.S. Government report. In order to understand
what's taking place at the end of the movie I think it's best
to give a brief overview of the futures market before discussing
the film.
The Futures Market
At its most basic level, a futures transaction is an agreement
between two parties to deliver and take delivery of an underlying
item (in this case a commodity-- orange juice, to be exact)
at a future date. The price paid for the contract represents
the investor's "best guess" as to what the price
of the commodity will be at the future date. The key
concept here is that price of the underlying commodity changes
over time, while the price of the contract is fixed. For
example, let's say that I buy a coffee future for $100/bushel.
For easy math, we'll assume that the contract is only
for one bushel. I have now agreed to take delivery of
a fixed quantity of coffee at that price. After a couple
of weeks a rare type of weevil descends on Colombia and ruins
the coffee crop. Because the weevils have severely limited
the coffee supply, the price rises to $200/bushel.
The next part is a little confusing, but stay with me. Futures
contracts are settled after each trading day. This means
that as the market price differs from the contract price,
one party has to pay the other. In our coffee
example, the seller of the contract that I bought would have
to pay me $100 (note that I would have to pay if the price
had decreased). There is no wealth created; the party
that profits does so at the expense of the other party.
The Movie
The Dukes' plan is to acquire, via the services of Clarence
Beaks, a government crop report before its released. They
are foiled by the Murphy/Aykroyd contingent (along with the
butler who looks like a hybrid of Phil Collins and the guy
from Magnum, PI). Murphy's group intercepts the
actual crop report and substitutes a false one. Based
on the information contained in the report, the Dukes are
led to believe that the Florida orange crop has been damaged
by weather and they instruct their buyer to buy as many contracts
as possible.
As trading opens in the movie, the Dukes' buyer is buying
and forcing the price to increase. Just before the crop
report is broadcasted, the Murphy/Aykroyd group offers to
sell contracts. It's been a while since I've seen the
movie, so I don't remember the exact dollar amounts involved,
but let's say that they sold at $200. After the real
crop report is broadcast, and it becomes public knowledge
that the orange supply has not been affected, the price begins
to fall. After the price free fall for a while, Murphy
and Aykroyd buy contracts at a lower amount, say $50. They
now have outstanding obligation to deliver orange juice for
$200 and to take delivery at $50. Assuming the number
of contracts is the same on both sides, Aykryod and Co. (and
let's not forget hooker with a heart of gold Jamie Lee Curtis)
have bought and sold orange juice and made $150/contract
in the process. Because the contracts offset, they don't
have to deliver anything or receive anything. On the downside,
this cash windfall allowed Eddie Murphy to mail in the rest
of his career (add Beverly Hills Cop 3, Metro or
I-Spy to your Netflix queue if you don't believe me).
With the possible exception of cage fighting, the futures
market represents competition in its purest form. Its
a complicated animal that is equal parts finance and psychology.
Hopefully the next time you find yourself watching Trading
Places on basic cable, you will be able to impress your
friends.
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